By Roger Bill.
In the final few days before the federal election and likely in the aftermath expect to hear a lot of commentary about how the Conservative’s lead in the polls is evaporating/evaporated at a record-breaking pace. Then expect to hear qualifications about how once reliable public opinion polls are less reliable today. All true.
What you are less likely to hear is what people who wager on elections used to think was going to happen and what they now think is going to happen in the federal election. It provides an insight into the public’s mood from the point of view of people who are wagering on the outcome. Forget who their favorite candidate is. Their bet isn’t a wager on what they want to happen, it is a wager on what they think is going to happen. It is like being a Blue Jays fan, but betting against them making the playoffs again this year.
So, what did people who bet on politics think was going to happen several months ago vs. what do they think today is going to happen? On October 24 at the Canadian sports gaming site sportsinteraction.com you could wager that the Conservatives were going to “win the most seats.” The odds were 1-10 that the Conservatives would win the most seats. That meant if you wagered $100 and the Tories won the most seats, then you would get back $110. The Conservatives were overwhelming favorites. It is the same payback you would get in the Maple Leafs/Senators NHL series when the Leafs were up 2 – 0 in the series.
What do punters think of the Conservative’s chances in the Federal election now? At sportsinteraction.com on April 24 the odds of the Conservatives forming “a minority government” (the closest wager to “win the most seats”) was 9-1. That meant if you wagered the same $100 and the Tories formed a minority government, then you would get back $900. The Conservatives went from being a lock to being a long-shot in five months.
Quite an accomplishment. If the gamblers are reading things right, then the next betting proposition is going to be, what are the odds on the various Conservative leadership contenders who will emerge after the Tories carve-up Pierre Poilievre.
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Also See Skeets of Bannerman Park – An Intro by Roger Bill
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